In brooding darkness
Storm clouds gather
Nectar falls
Spirit rises to meet itself
In throbbing bouts of ecstasy
Storm clouds gather
Nectar falls
Spirit rises to meet itself
In throbbing bouts of ecstasy
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Unhappy Independence Day
On the occasion of remembering India's liberation from British bureaucrats and its usurpation by Indian bureaucrats, I must confess to a pang of sadness. I can best explain its origin by means of the following graph (obtained from the World Bank Report on water in India)
Magnify it and look at it by all means. Its an important chart. Now let us look at another fact, this one drawn from the UN's Climate Report published in 2007. By 2030, i.e., a bare 21 years from now, the Gangotri and other glaciers feeding the Ganga (I refuse to call it Ganges) river will have disappeared, making it highly likely that the Ganga will become a seasonal river and, by the time I seek to be cremated by its side in Varanasi in 70 years' time, will have vanished completely. The India that I will breathe my last in will be an India where the Ganga will have joined the Saraswati and Yamuna as a mythical river.
Setting cultural nostalgia aside, countries throughout the world are beginning to suffer from what is euphemistically called "Limits to growth". For the US, the major bottleneck is one of securing petroleum reserves. Why do you think global warming has become such a big talking point? Because people have suddenly realized how fragile the eco-systems are and have developed a sense of reverence towards Nature? Poppycock! Its because the global warming issue can be used as a narrative to explain and begin the inevitable shift away from fossil fuel based economies to other sources of energy.
For India, the bottleneck is far more severe - in both the logistical and temporal sense. Logistical because water is far more fundamental for survival than oil. People might grumble if they can't drive, they might shout if they have to pay a little bit more for food because transportation costs have gone up. But think of the panic that erupts whenever there is a drought. Now extend that into the infinite future and you will have some sense of the logistical nightmare that is about to erupt. When is it going to erupt? That's where the temporal problem shows up. By most estimates, water demand in India is going to exceed all possible sources of supply by 2020 (maybe 2025).
At this point, gentle reader, you are likely to think, "Demand exceeding supply you say? How fascinating! Note to self: remember this for dinner table conversation." To gain a deeper appreciation of this fact, why not perform the following experiment: perform as many push-ups as you can. When you reach your limit, perform five more. Come back and revisit the phenomenon of demand exceeding supply when you're done. You will then understand the concept better.
In 11 years' time, the Indian economy will start hitting its limits to growth. Any further expansion in industrial water usage would come at the cost of domestic water supply, political anathema. At this point, there will arise crises along multiple dimensions, not least geopolitically, since the Himalayan mountains that supply India with 70% of its fresh water also feed its illustrious and cantankerous neighbors. In the face of rising public discontent, how hard is it going to be for some demagogue to promise abrogating water treaties as a route to political exaltation?
11 years, gentle reader. The India of 2020 is not going to be a land of peace and prosperity, well on its way to becoming a mini-USA. It is going to be a land of turmoil and factionalism, with industrialists trying to cut deals with government to keep their water supply quotas intact, states screaming at the top of their lungs and threatening to secede from the Union unless their neighbors stopped filching what is rightly theirs, and last but not least, a population finally waking up to the fact that the patina of capitalistic prosperity that it has so eagerly accepted is not likely to last very long after all.
What's that you say? China already has a water deficit and is doing fine? No, dear reader, China is not doing fine. The reason China appears to be doing fine is because it runs a current account surplus that will allow it to be a net grain importer. It has already begun running a grain deficit, and that is when it is overpumping its groundwater aquifers and diverting enough water away from its rivers to leave them almost dry. Believe me, the water crisis is going to hit them pretty hard just as well.
There can be no anarcho-primitivist fleeing to the hills here. Back to the basics survivalism won't help when one of the basics is in short supply. Feeble efforts at water conservation and retrenchment of river systems will buy a brief period of grace, but against the geo-physical events that are presently in motion, I fear that all the ingenuity and effort of humanity would fail. And we aren't even making that effort!
And why stop at 11 years? 2050 is not that far away. Most of my readership will have children their current age by that time. Think of the devastation that is likely to result when available water supplies shrink to 20% of their current volume. There is only one word that comes to mind to fit the picture - catastrophe.
Is there anything that can be done to avoid this? Surely there must be something that we could do to solve our problems - the inveterate humanist bleat. At such times I am reminded of the Club of Rome's shockingly honest appraisal of the heart of mankind's problems - too much mankind. What is the problem? There's too many of us struggling to survive with a finite amount of resources at hand.
You must, of course, argue with me here. Fine, chuck the bathing and the laundry (ah! I would be seen as a prophet if this were ever to come to pass). That still doesn't help. 90% of India's water consumption is agricultural. Stop growing food? A sensible partial solution, of course, would be to try and grow less water-intensive crops. But the only way to get farmers to buy into that paradigm is to stop subsidizing their electricity bills for pumping out ground water, doing which is electoral suicide.
You wish to educate the farmers and the voters and the general public about this grave matter so that they may take steps to redeem the situation? Within 11 years? I commend your idealism. Why not take on an even nobler task then? Get people to stop having kids. Reduce the population of India by 50% and observe the peace and prosperity that would descend. Rivers of milk and honey would flow, man would treat his fellow man justly, a veritable Golden Age would descend! You would go down in myths and legends as the redeemer of our civilization!
Unfortunately, there is only this one way to solve this problem - stop population growth. How likely is that? Let alone reducing population, think about the likelihood of even stabilizing the Indian population at its current levels. Impossible! Human nature will do what human nature must do (I would explain this further here, but it would take away from the import of the present writing. Some other time.). It is in the nature of man to perpetrate the tragedy of the commons. That's just the way it is. In my opinion, there is not much to be gained by flailing our hands and invoking romantic notions of victory over the laws of physics and human nature. All we can do is use foresight and planning to sidestep problems once we can see them heading our way. Once our own existence is no longer threatened by a problem, we can try and find palliatives for others.
In practical terms, what can one do to include this rather bleak outlook in one's long term plans? Offhand, I can think of the following general suggestions:
1. If, like me, you're not in India, set the wheels in motion to never have to go back and make arrangements for family members to emigrate just as well.
2. If you are in India, set the wheels in motion either to emigrate, or to settle in the South of India, somewhere near the coasts and one of the rivers Mahanadi, Godavari or Cauvery. Those will not run out that quickly.
3. If your family owns real estate in the Northern Plains, think medium term (3-6 years from now) about selling. Property prices aren't exactly going to go up if the river basins start to dry up.
4. Buy and hold investors among you might want to shorten your horizons and those holding government bonds might want to sell. I haven't explored any investment opportunities that might benefit from water scarcity yet, but I will at some point.
5. Be prepared for major societal upheavals. When I say major, think on the order of the violence during Partition, less rabid, but occurring on a much longer time-scale.
What's that? I am advocating escapism? I am proposing that when the ship is on fire, one depart in haste and not stick around on the burning deck for some sentimental reason or the other? Yes, precisely so.
Feel free to laugh at me and mock my fanciful predictions. If I am wrong and there is no crisis in the offing, I would be very happy to see that the country of my origin is doing well and is stable and prosperous. That joy would likely offset all the derision that I would face in such an eventuality.
Let me state very clearly though, that none of what has been said here has been said thoughtlessly or in jest. I could, as disclaimed above, be a moron who is utterly wrong. I could be an alarmist who is fretting about a problem that will resolve itself when the time comes. That being said, I have written this because I think I am right and that water woes are going to become perhaps the most important aspect of India's existential trajectory within the next two decades.
Researchers who study the limits of growth paint a gloomy picture for humanity in the second half of this century, a time that seems to most people to belong very far in the future, hence not a suitable subject for analysis. Unfortunately, gentle reader, the future is almost here, and the road to this unpleasant future from the simulacrum of cornucopia prevailing today is bound to be a bumpy one. It just so happens that, for geophysical reasons, one of the countries that will suffer most from hitting up against the limits of growth is going to be India, which is why I am forced to observe the 62nd birth anniversary of its rebirth as a republic in such a solemn manner.
UPDATE (21 Jan 2009) It turns out that some of my dire prognostications are based on incorrect data. In particular, the prediction from the UN's IPCC report concerning the fate of the Himalayan glaciers has now been shown to have been false. While I have tried to stay abreast of the climate change propaganda that has been spewed out in the recent past, I had hoped that the main scientific findings, at least, would be free of error. Apparently not.
If the glaciers are in no imminent danger, then the water crisis cannot be terribly pressing. Of course, groundwater depletion remains a concern, but not as terrible an existential concern. I may update this post further when I have had time to think over the implications of the new scenario.
I am happy, though, at the thought that the glaciers still have another few centuries to go.
Magnify it and look at it by all means. Its an important chart. Now let us look at another fact, this one drawn from the UN's Climate Report published in 2007. By 2030, i.e., a bare 21 years from now, the Gangotri and other glaciers feeding the Ganga (I refuse to call it Ganges) river will have disappeared, making it highly likely that the Ganga will become a seasonal river and, by the time I seek to be cremated by its side in Varanasi in 70 years' time, will have vanished completely. The India that I will breathe my last in will be an India where the Ganga will have joined the Saraswati and Yamuna as a mythical river.
Setting cultural nostalgia aside, countries throughout the world are beginning to suffer from what is euphemistically called "Limits to growth". For the US, the major bottleneck is one of securing petroleum reserves. Why do you think global warming has become such a big talking point? Because people have suddenly realized how fragile the eco-systems are and have developed a sense of reverence towards Nature? Poppycock! Its because the global warming issue can be used as a narrative to explain and begin the inevitable shift away from fossil fuel based economies to other sources of energy.
For India, the bottleneck is far more severe - in both the logistical and temporal sense. Logistical because water is far more fundamental for survival than oil. People might grumble if they can't drive, they might shout if they have to pay a little bit more for food because transportation costs have gone up. But think of the panic that erupts whenever there is a drought. Now extend that into the infinite future and you will have some sense of the logistical nightmare that is about to erupt. When is it going to erupt? That's where the temporal problem shows up. By most estimates, water demand in India is going to exceed all possible sources of supply by 2020 (maybe 2025).
At this point, gentle reader, you are likely to think, "Demand exceeding supply you say? How fascinating! Note to self: remember this for dinner table conversation." To gain a deeper appreciation of this fact, why not perform the following experiment: perform as many push-ups as you can. When you reach your limit, perform five more. Come back and revisit the phenomenon of demand exceeding supply when you're done. You will then understand the concept better.
In 11 years' time, the Indian economy will start hitting its limits to growth. Any further expansion in industrial water usage would come at the cost of domestic water supply, political anathema. At this point, there will arise crises along multiple dimensions, not least geopolitically, since the Himalayan mountains that supply India with 70% of its fresh water also feed its illustrious and cantankerous neighbors. In the face of rising public discontent, how hard is it going to be for some demagogue to promise abrogating water treaties as a route to political exaltation?
11 years, gentle reader. The India of 2020 is not going to be a land of peace and prosperity, well on its way to becoming a mini-USA. It is going to be a land of turmoil and factionalism, with industrialists trying to cut deals with government to keep their water supply quotas intact, states screaming at the top of their lungs and threatening to secede from the Union unless their neighbors stopped filching what is rightly theirs, and last but not least, a population finally waking up to the fact that the patina of capitalistic prosperity that it has so eagerly accepted is not likely to last very long after all.
What's that you say? China already has a water deficit and is doing fine? No, dear reader, China is not doing fine. The reason China appears to be doing fine is because it runs a current account surplus that will allow it to be a net grain importer. It has already begun running a grain deficit, and that is when it is overpumping its groundwater aquifers and diverting enough water away from its rivers to leave them almost dry. Believe me, the water crisis is going to hit them pretty hard just as well.
There can be no anarcho-primitivist fleeing to the hills here. Back to the basics survivalism won't help when one of the basics is in short supply. Feeble efforts at water conservation and retrenchment of river systems will buy a brief period of grace, but against the geo-physical events that are presently in motion, I fear that all the ingenuity and effort of humanity would fail. And we aren't even making that effort!
And why stop at 11 years? 2050 is not that far away. Most of my readership will have children their current age by that time. Think of the devastation that is likely to result when available water supplies shrink to 20% of their current volume. There is only one word that comes to mind to fit the picture - catastrophe.
Is there anything that can be done to avoid this? Surely there must be something that we could do to solve our problems - the inveterate humanist bleat. At such times I am reminded of the Club of Rome's shockingly honest appraisal of the heart of mankind's problems - too much mankind. What is the problem? There's too many of us struggling to survive with a finite amount of resources at hand.
You must, of course, argue with me here. Fine, chuck the bathing and the laundry (ah! I would be seen as a prophet if this were ever to come to pass). That still doesn't help. 90% of India's water consumption is agricultural. Stop growing food? A sensible partial solution, of course, would be to try and grow less water-intensive crops. But the only way to get farmers to buy into that paradigm is to stop subsidizing their electricity bills for pumping out ground water, doing which is electoral suicide.
You wish to educate the farmers and the voters and the general public about this grave matter so that they may take steps to redeem the situation? Within 11 years? I commend your idealism. Why not take on an even nobler task then? Get people to stop having kids. Reduce the population of India by 50% and observe the peace and prosperity that would descend. Rivers of milk and honey would flow, man would treat his fellow man justly, a veritable Golden Age would descend! You would go down in myths and legends as the redeemer of our civilization!
Unfortunately, there is only this one way to solve this problem - stop population growth. How likely is that? Let alone reducing population, think about the likelihood of even stabilizing the Indian population at its current levels. Impossible! Human nature will do what human nature must do (I would explain this further here, but it would take away from the import of the present writing. Some other time.). It is in the nature of man to perpetrate the tragedy of the commons. That's just the way it is. In my opinion, there is not much to be gained by flailing our hands and invoking romantic notions of victory over the laws of physics and human nature. All we can do is use foresight and planning to sidestep problems once we can see them heading our way. Once our own existence is no longer threatened by a problem, we can try and find palliatives for others.
In practical terms, what can one do to include this rather bleak outlook in one's long term plans? Offhand, I can think of the following general suggestions:
1. If, like me, you're not in India, set the wheels in motion to never have to go back and make arrangements for family members to emigrate just as well.
2. If you are in India, set the wheels in motion either to emigrate, or to settle in the South of India, somewhere near the coasts and one of the rivers Mahanadi, Godavari or Cauvery. Those will not run out that quickly.
3. If your family owns real estate in the Northern Plains, think medium term (3-6 years from now) about selling. Property prices aren't exactly going to go up if the river basins start to dry up.
4. Buy and hold investors among you might want to shorten your horizons and those holding government bonds might want to sell. I haven't explored any investment opportunities that might benefit from water scarcity yet, but I will at some point.
5. Be prepared for major societal upheavals. When I say major, think on the order of the violence during Partition, less rabid, but occurring on a much longer time-scale.
What's that? I am advocating escapism? I am proposing that when the ship is on fire, one depart in haste and not stick around on the burning deck for some sentimental reason or the other? Yes, precisely so.
Feel free to laugh at me and mock my fanciful predictions. If I am wrong and there is no crisis in the offing, I would be very happy to see that the country of my origin is doing well and is stable and prosperous. That joy would likely offset all the derision that I would face in such an eventuality.
Let me state very clearly though, that none of what has been said here has been said thoughtlessly or in jest. I could, as disclaimed above, be a moron who is utterly wrong. I could be an alarmist who is fretting about a problem that will resolve itself when the time comes. That being said, I have written this because I think I am right and that water woes are going to become perhaps the most important aspect of India's existential trajectory within the next two decades.
Researchers who study the limits of growth paint a gloomy picture for humanity in the second half of this century, a time that seems to most people to belong very far in the future, hence not a suitable subject for analysis. Unfortunately, gentle reader, the future is almost here, and the road to this unpleasant future from the simulacrum of cornucopia prevailing today is bound to be a bumpy one. It just so happens that, for geophysical reasons, one of the countries that will suffer most from hitting up against the limits of growth is going to be India, which is why I am forced to observe the 62nd birth anniversary of its rebirth as a republic in such a solemn manner.
UPDATE (21 Jan 2009) It turns out that some of my dire prognostications are based on incorrect data. In particular, the prediction from the UN's IPCC report concerning the fate of the Himalayan glaciers has now been shown to have been false. While I have tried to stay abreast of the climate change propaganda that has been spewed out in the recent past, I had hoped that the main scientific findings, at least, would be free of error. Apparently not.
If the glaciers are in no imminent danger, then the water crisis cannot be terribly pressing. Of course, groundwater depletion remains a concern, but not as terrible an existential concern. I may update this post further when I have had time to think over the implications of the new scenario.
I am happy, though, at the thought that the glaciers still have another few centuries to go.
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About Me
- Nisheeth
- I is a place-holder to prevent perpetual infinite regress. I is a marker on the road that ends in I not being.